Monday, November 3, 2008

Episode 25: Battlefield America!

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I CAN’T BELIEVE IT!! Election day is tomorrow! It feels like Christmas eve – cool crispy air, the promise of milk and honey the following day, and non-stop TV about the event. So let us talk about the big factors going into the big election.



The Undecided Vote: I took Friday off to do a lot of reading and number crunching to help me understand the polls and the politics. What I came up with is the undecided vote should be considered a non issue. With the undecided vote in the 6% area, I think it will be a three way split. One third will vote McCain because they don’t agree with republican’s but are uncomfortable with a Black president. Another third will vote for Obama because they are uncomfortable about voting for a Black president, but they dislike republicans so much, they’re willing to “take a risk.” The final third simply will not vote… they may be disengaged with politics, or truly indifferent. Therefore, at best, McCain can only pick up a maximum 2-3% of the popular vote.

The Numbers Game: The number of democratic voters outweigh the number of republican voters. Contrary to McCain’s internal pollster Bill McInturff, the numbers will not break in McCain’s direction. McInturff argues that even if all the African American, Latino, and Youth vote comes out, the number of Evangelical Christians will out number them. Because the democrats make up a larger percentage of the voting community, I don’t see how his argument holds any water. One factor that can have a significant impact is..

Vote Troubles: Be it voter suppression, broken machines, hacked computers, and whatnot, the one factor that can hurt Obama is cheating. However, Obama’s massive ground campaign has tons of people on the ground to police the situation, as do the republicans (though in fewer number).

The Battleground States: By my count, Obama wins the election at worst, with 338 electoral votes, at best, 360 electoral votes (states where Obama is leading by a small margin), and at improbable (taking into account all polls where a red state moved from strong McCain to lean McCain to less than or equal to statistically tied), 406 electoral votes.

States Obama will win: Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Ohio. States Obama should win: Virginia, North Carolina. States I’m nervous about: Florida, Indiana. Good gets: Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and ARIZONA!

The road for McCain is VERY steep. He needs to win literally everything: PA, FL, VA, NC, OH, and IN. This scenario is McCain 270, Obama 268. According to the polls (see fivethirtyeight.com on the links section), PA is an incredibly unlikely get. Huge urban populations in Philly and Pittsburg make up an overwhelming percentage of the vote which strongly favors Obama. Here’s the deal, I think we’ll know the winner possibly at 7pm EST, 8pm EST tops. Indiana is the first state to close – if Obama wins, the ONLY way McCain can win is with Pennsylvania. An hour after Indian, Ohio and Florida close. If Obama picks up one or both of those states, the race is effectively over; it becomes a question of by how much Obama wins.

Democratic Last Minute Notes: Keep on doing what you’re doing… get the message out to get people to the polls. The only thing that can hurt is the lack of voters – early vote numbers show that the rock the vote campaign has broken records in early voting.

Republican Last Minute Notes: Everyone will keep their eye on Pennsylvania. That is the battleground of battlegrounds. Without PA (this still includes an Obama loss in FL, OH, VA, NC, and IN!!), Obama wins 289 to 249.

My Thoughts: All you have to do is look at the people in attendance at these rallies. Obama rallies have an overwhelming number of youth and diversity, while McCain rallies have an older ago group – 45+ years old. That is what we are voting for my dear readers. The future versus the present. The new ideas versus the old ideas. There is so much symbolism in this election. Obama talks about an America that looks to higher education and technology as the new face of America. McCain champions Joe the Plumber, who is complacency in the status quo personified (literally and figuratively). The choice is as clear as day, and it is my sincerest wish that Americans chose to look to the future. That future, without a doubt is Barack Obama. I am a nobody in the political sphere, but I’m going on the record and offering my endorsement to Barack Obama.

Bitter? Sweet? Or Bitter Sweet?

I love elections, and maps, and polls, and speeches, and rhetoric, and fully exercising my first amendment rights to criticize our government. I loved the CNN, MSNBC, Daily Show, Colbert Report, Letterman, Leno, and SNL jokes. I loved reading the latest news (and to outdo Palin, I’ll name a few – NY Times, WSJ, Politico, Huffington Post I am proud to have raised a lot of money for Obama’s campaigns. Still, it is A LOT of the same news, and I’m ready for The L Comment to move on to some fresh stories! So it is Bittersweet for me! I’d love to hear your thoughts on the post, and your feelings on the campaign! Leave a comment!
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1 comments: on "Episode 25: Battlefield America!"

Texas Wanderer said...

It is definitely bitter sweet, because even though there is no doubt in my mind Obama will win (thank God!), after it is over it gives those of us who won't continue on to work as staff members a bitter sweet ending.

For the staffs that continue on, it gives them a chance to put their money where their mouths are. Hopefully they will. But for the rest of us, all we can do is sit back and hope and pray that they apply the principles which got them in the office in the first place.

It gives almost a "what now" feeling, but that will come later. For today it is time to make sure the voters get to the polls, their votes get to count, and put our next President in office- Barack Obama.

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